The trillion dollar energy windfall | Reports/Guides | PRI
The collapse in renewable costs means that for two thirds of the world, renewable energy is the cheapest source of baseload. By the early s it will be every major country. The business case keeps getting stronger. As costs fall, so new cost tipping points will be crossed over the next decade. The cost of new renewables will become cheaper than fossil operating costs during the s, and the cost of dispatchable renewables with a battery will fall below the cost of new fossils.
The intermittency ceiling is high and rising.
Climate & Clean Energy
The imperative to act is still there. Renewables provide a way to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, cut deaths from pollution, and enhance energy independence. They produce more local jobs, increase social justice and are extremely popular. The harvest is huge.
The world can now enjoy a renewable energy windfall — a Gigafall. Start to add in the externality value of renewables and you rapidly get to a much larger number.
The transition will be sequenced. Countries with large domestic coal and gas extraction and electricity generation will face more powerful impediments to change. However, countries with rising demand and pollution issues and those with significant fossil fuel imports will drive the transition. The forces for change are sufficient to start the transition.
The role of policy as enabler. Policymakers can now act to seize the opportunity. That means providing enabling regulatory regimes, taxing the fossil fuel externality, forcing the pace of change, and retraining fossil fuel workers for the new world. Expect rising policy action.
The reward to successful policymakers will be greater wealth, cleaner air, lower warming, energy independence and electoral success. The race is on. The Forecast Policy Scenario FPS , introduced in this report, models the impact of the forecasted policies on the real economy up to , tracing detailed effects on all emitting sectors, including changes to energy demand oil, gas, coal , transport, food prices, crop yields, and rates of deforestation. It also provides These give an economic and market mandate to policy makers for action. Markets today lack a strong basis for pricing climate transition risk, and do not seem to have priced in a forceful policy response to climate change within the near-term.
But our policy forecast shows this to be a highly likely outcome, leaving portfolios exposed to significant risk. Site powered by Webvision Cloud. Skip to main content Skip to navigation. A long-term view of natural gas security in the European Union Peter Zeniewski 13 March The debate on Europe's gas security may be shifting to internal questions over the role of gas infrastructure in a decarbonising European energy system. Signposts for the gas outlook Peter Zeniewski; Tae-Yoon Kim 7 February WEO scenarios and analysis provide insight into the factors that will shape the future of gas markets.
Battery storage is almost ready to play the flexibility game Claudia Pavarini 7 February In an electricity world that sees variable renewables at the centre stage, market players and policy makers cannot overlook the need for flexibility. Is exponential growth of solar PV the obvious conclusion? Brent Wanner 6 February The future of solar PV, like so many parts of the energy system, will continue to depend largely on decisions made by governments. Desalinated water affects the energy equation in the Middle East Molly Walton 21 January Perhaps more than in other parts of the world, in the Middle East energy and water are closely intertwined.
Winners, losers and unintended consequences in the outlook for oil product demand Tae-Yoon Kim 4 January Debates about the future of oil tend to focus on total demand but there are a variety of stories of growth and decline that are of great significance for the overall oil outlook. Could tight oil go global?
How will the electricity market of the future work? Carbon capture, utilisation and storage finally catches the spotlight Laszlo Varro 7 December Large CCUS deployment will be needed for successful clean-energy transitions. Whatever happened to enhanced oil recovery? Christophe McGlade; Glenn Sondak; Mei Han 28 November Throughout the history of the oil industry, technological progress has found a way to bring new resources into play.
Do automated cars dream of electric sharing? Efficiency should always be the first answer Kevin Lane; Armin Mayer 20 November Energy efficiency has been critical in decoupling economic growth from rising energy consumption. Crunching the numbers: are we heading for an oil supply shock? Tim Gould; Christophe McGlade 16 November The new World Energy Outlook contained some warning messages on the possibility of a mismatch between robust demand in the near term and a potential shortfall of new supply projects.
Population without access to electricity falls below 1 billion Laura Cozzi; Olivia Chen; Hannah Daly; Aaron Koh 30 October Latest World Energy Outlook data shows progress on providing access to energy, but much more effort is needed. Hard-earned reforms to fossil fuel subsidies are coming under threat Wataru Matsumura; Zakia Adam 29 October The World Energy Outlook has been tracking fossil fuel consumption subsidies for many years and our latest data shows that they are rising again.
IEA steps up its work on energy innovation as money flows into new energy tech companies Simon Bennett 5 September Investments are leading indicators of the direction of change in the energy sector. The energy sector is feeling the heat Caroline Lee 29 August Record summer temperatures have put strain on energy systems across the northern hemisphere. Decline in renewables investment is a warning signal for clean energy transitions Michael Waldron 24 July Government policy is key to boosting renewables finance. The importance of real-world policy packages to drive energy transitions Anita Hafner; Peter Janoska; Caroline Lee 9 July For many countries, carbon prices are one policy within a complex policy system to drive energy transitions.
Progress with solar heat in India Ute Collier 3 July Even in the hottest climates, heat production makes up a significant proportion of energy demand. Electricity in every village in India Bruce Murphy; Hannah Daly 1 June India realises one of the greatest achievements in the history of energy, ahead of schedule. Quality vs Quantity — Are global refiners ready for US shale exports?
Kristine Petrosyan 7 May Surge in US production is changing perceptions in the global refining business. Where are we on the road to clean energy? Infrastructure investments key to unlocking more US oil supply Olivier Lejeune 28 March Growth in West Texas oil supplies could put strain on US export capacity unless new investment forthcoming. Energy has a role to play in achieving universal access to clean water and sanitation Molly A.
Walton 22 March Water is essential to almost all aspects of energy supply while energy is also required for water treatment and transport. Energy is at the heart of the sustainable development agenda to Dr Fatih Birol 19 March IEA introduces new online resource for all its Sustainable Development Goals data and projections. US budget bill may help carbon capture get back on track Simon Bennett; Tristan Stanley 12 March Provision could provide the first significant stimulus to the global fortunes of carbon capture for several years.
More policy attention is needed for renewable heat Ute Collier 25 January Heat remains the sleeping giant of energy policy despite massive potential for energy savings and emissions reductions. Clean and efficient heat for industry Elie Bellevrat; Kira West 23 January There is no single solution for reducing energy demand and emissions from industrial heat use.
Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies are down, but not out Toshiyuki Shirai; Zakia Adam 20 December Subsidies for fossil fuels are falling but remain much higher than those for renewables. Bringing electricity to all corners of Southeast Asia Ali Al-Saffar 19 December Cheaper renewable technologies open new options for cost-effective electricity access. Changing utility business models and electricity investment Michael Waldron; Yoko Nobuoka 15 December Technology, market and policy changes are transforming European utilities and new creating strategic opportunities.
Unlocking energy savings from buildings John Dulac 11 December The energy intensity of buildings is improving only slowly, representing a major opportunity for further savings. Plotting a path for greater bioenergy use Adam Brown; Paolo Frankl 27 November A new IEA technology roadmap provides milestones and policy actions needed to increase bioenergy supplies in a sustainable and cost-efficiency way.